OIDA Market Report
Seasonal Variation in Optics and Photonics Revenues
Reflecting on first quarter revenues as a predictor for the rest of the year.
Estimates of the Q4-to-Q1 decline in company revenues and U.S. GDP (adjusted for inflation but not for seasonal variation) for the past five years. [OIDA company index from company reports (2019), and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (2019).]
This year is likely to be rocky for optics and photonics companies. The stock market was jittery last fall, suggesting that Wall Street saw risk ahead (see “Market Outlook 2019,” OPN, January 2019, p. 26), and debt looms over many economies. Despite positive signs, economists caution that the U.S. economy is not strong and that the tax-cut stimulus may soon dissipate. Globally, China’s growth may be even slower than official estimates, Europe faces political and financial challenges, and all the while threats of a trade war are eroding confidence, slowing demand.
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